Asian growth prospects remain stable
By Abdul Kerimkhanov
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) improved the forecast of Central Asian GDP for 2019 from 4.2 to 4.3 percent due to an increase in public investment and production at the Shah Deniz gas condensate field in Azerbaijan.
At the same time, the bank lowered forecasts for inflation growth in 2018 in the Central Asia region from 8.4 to eight percent also due to the improvement in inflation forecasts in Azerbaijan.
The new report of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) notes that emerging economies in the Asia-Pacific region, despite the fall in inflationary pressures, are successfully overcoming external challenges thanks to their high domestic demand. In addition to the 2018 Asian Development Review Report, ADB maintained regional economic growth forecasts for 2018 by 6 percent and 2018 by 5.8 percent. Except for new industrialized economies such as Hong Kong, China, the Republic of Korea, Singapore and Taibei (China), the prospects for regional economic growth have been maintained by 6.5 percent in 2018 and 6.3 percent by 2019.
The low international commodity prices and the central bank's call to reduce the volatility of the market mean that the forecast for inflation in Asia will be 2.6 percent in 2018 and 2.7 percent in 2019, which will be the next year the forecast is less than 2.8 percent.
"The agreement on trade tariffs between the U.S. and the People's Republic of China is very satisfying, but the unresolved conflict remains a major risk to economic prospects in the region," said Mr. Yasuki, ADB's Chief Economist. He added that by keeping this in mind, ADB is keeping the predictions about the region's economic growth unchanged this year, given that some of the major economies will be able to meet challenges.
Economic growth in the world's second-largest economy is expected to be 6.6 percent in 2018, with a slight decline of 6.3 percent in the next year. The economic growth rate continues to increase in India with exports and high industry and agricultural production. It is estimated that the economic growth will be 7.3 percent in 2018 and 7.6 percent in 2019.
Gross domestic product in Central Asia will be 4.3 percent in 2019, compared to 4.2 percent forecasted in September, as restoration of public investment and extraction of Shah Deniz gas field expands Azerbaijan's perspectives. South Asia's economic growth in 2019 has fallen by 7.2 percent to 7.1 percent in September. The forecast for South East Asia is expected to grow 5.1 percent in 2019, as opposed to 5.2 percent. The Pacific region is moving in the right direction to grow by 3.1 percent in 2019.
The Asian Development Bank was conceived in the early 1960s as a financial institution that would be Asian in character and foster economic growth and cooperation in one of the poorest regions in the world.
ADB assists its members, and partners, by providing loans, technical assistance, grants, and equity investments to promote social and economic development.
The Bank is composed of 67 members, 48 of which are from the Asia and Pacific region.
The main objective of the Asian Development Bank is to support the economic development of member countries and to help alleviate poverty and improve the living standards of the population. Azerbaijan joined ADB in 1999. ADB has approved a $ 4.61 billion loan, guarantee, grant and technical assistance for the country since then. In 2004, the Bank's local representative office was opened in the country. Azerbaijan hosted the 48th Annual Meeting of the Board of Governors of the Bank in 2015.
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Abdul Kerimkhanov is AzerNews’ staff journalist, follow him on Twitter: @AbdulKerim94
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